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This Month
March 2010
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View Article  On the panel - just what is "free" anyway?

I took my seat alongside Rob Hopkins at EcoBuild in Earls Court this year. We were presenting on "Sustaining Transition Town Initiatives". I got a slot on "Lessons from a Transition Town" whilst Rob presented on "Transition Towns today and in the future". Other presenters were Liz Cox (head of Connected Economies, New Economics Foundation) and Alastair Donald (Urban Designer). (Earlier in the day, in the main arena, was a debate "What makes a sustainable community?" [as pictured above] with Peter Head (Director of Arup), Rt Hon David Blunkett MP (former Home Secretary), Julian Baggini (philosopher) and Wilfred Emmanuel Jones (originator of the Black Farmer food label).)

I digress.... Back to our somewhat smaller (but very well attended) event: Alastair's presentation spawned controversy (see Rob's response at http://transitionculture.org/2010/03/04/genuine-resilience-results-from-expanding-the-human-footprint-discuss/) when he suggested that sustainable development somehow was an artificial constraint upon human (and specifically) architectural development. Although the criticism was not aimed specifically at Transition Towns (and the debate was good humoured) Alastair's assertion that "genuine resilience results from an expanding human footprint" met with the Rob's ire. I think most of us would scratch our head with disbelief that anyone could imagine the exponential expansion of resource usage can be sustained on a finite planet. It beggars believe but is the reflection of the same sort of logic that drove Ian Plimer in "Heaven & Earth" (ISBN 978-07043-7166-8 Quartet Books 2009) when he stated that mankind's existence was personified by our triumph over nature. For Plimer nature is darn-right nasty and out to 'get us'. He believed it is our right to overcome nature and tame it if we are to remain alive & free on this planet. This view comes from a very different view of life. One as mankind as victim rather than nature.

I recall a vaguely charming Tweet from Rob several months ago when he said he was off to the cinema to see "Star Trek"(2009 Paramount Pictures). Having subsequently seen this movie myself I can't help but think that the future vision created by Gene Roddenberry (or let's say reinterpreted by J.J. Abrams) is at the meeting point of Rob and Alastair's views. What is missing is time and technology. If we live long enough to develop a technology that gives us access to unlimited clean and renewable energy then much of our problems disappear IF we also undergo a cultural transition. If we know how to change matter into energy then back to matter again we can create whatever we need to create and leave mother nature well alone. The future vision of Star Trek has often shown astounding technology alongside people's and culture leading a simple "transitiony" existence. These future people have learnt harsh lessons so have rejected wars and urban sprawl in favour of a more sustainable relationship with the planets they live on. Urban nightmares are only found on "backward" planets with people who have not transitioned. The way WE live today would simply be viewed as barbaric to these imaginary future cultures. Transition is a cultural curtailment where people find a happier place with less stuff. It doesn't mean they live in mud huts, leading a miserable short life and chewing berries to survive in the woods. In such a future world the architects can build whatever fantastic city-scape they can imagine. But would anyone want to live in them? Your freedom is only defined by what people want, it is only confined by what people need.

So go on, build your gas guzzling unsustainable buildings and feel 'free'. But they will become the definition of failure when people evolve to find what true freedom really means. As one member of the audience pointed out in the ensuing debate at EcoBuild: where is the freedom in nuclear energy when the uranium is ripped from the soil of Tibet and those who exploit it ride roughshod of over the freedoms of the indigenous peoples who live there? With every freedom come a responsibility. Out of sight is not out of mind. Once we realise the costs of our perceived freedoms then then are no longer classified as freedoms. They become the bars that hold us back.

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View Article  Brace! Climate Change Backlash starts here

It’s all gone a bit Pete Tong hasn’t it? Aggressive Climate Change Deniers hacked into the Climate Research Unit’s E:Mails and downloaded thousands of inter-personal notes covering millions of words. What did they find? Well, just about nothing. Just like the Bible – if you look hard enough you can find something that backs whatever distorted belief system you wish to reinforce. They found no evidence of conspiracy and no lack of evidence for man-made climate change. But what little they did find they milked for all it is worth. Meanwhile the American Petroleum Institute quietly pumped $52million dollars into the American Political system to ensure that Obama does precisely NOTHING at Copenhagen – let alone go to it.

 

No wonder the public are confused. Last month, the Pew Research Center released its latest poll on the American public’s attitude to Climate Change. Belief that Climate Change is occurring had declined from 71% in April 2008 to 56% in October and the belief that Climate Change is human-caused declined from 47% to 36%. This gets more bizarre by the second. At precisely the same time 100 scientists who worked on the IPCC 2007 report released a 2009 update in time for Copenhagen. Their conclusions? Ice at both poles is melting faster than predicted, the claims of recent global cooling are wrong, and world leaders must act fast if steep temperature rises are to be avoided.

 

We have not had a greater divergence between what the public believe and what science knows. The internet is abuzz with the furious blogging and comments of what seems like a thousand amateur Climate change Deniers. Amazon’s best selling science books are all on Climate Change Denial. It seems that collective madness has crept upon us. Pretty soon we’ll be condemning midwives to drowning for being Witches. It is all very depressing. Maybe it is the darkest just before dawn? Maybe we are on the verge of a breakthrough? The coincidence between public doubt, scientific certainty and Government action is NOT coincidental. It was all very well blaming each other when we thought nothing would actually get done. But as soon as something IS about to get done we chickened out of the deal. Good Lord! The Government may actually enforce a Carbon Budget! Outrageous Orwellian nightmare! It seems people would support action on climate change as long as no action was actually taken.

 

Only a few years ago it looked like Al Gore’s “An Inconvenient Truth” has smashed its way into the public consciousness. The debate was over. Although the debate was over and the science settled it seemed that the public attitude is fickle and easily swayed into disinterest as soon as economic recession headed their way. Afterall – who cares when Governmental Leadership clearly felt it necessary to pump trillions into a banking sector (that wasn’t allowed to fail) whilst barely passing a few pennies towards greening the economy?

 

So we are clutched grimly in the jaws of history with neither victory nor defeat quite at hand. The inconvenient truth is that the public just wish the problem to go away so they can get on with their lives. They will vote for whoever makes it go away. There are enough politicians out there who will do just that – not by agreeing to strict emissions caps at Copenhagen but by doing the far easier thing – simply saying the problem does not exist. Problem solved. Case closed. We’ll just find a million pounds here or there to bail out the flood victims in north-England villages. We’ll adapt. Well, for a hundred years maybe. But then....

 

So here we are in the midst of an inter-generational civil war. If we choose now to do nothing then we have declared this war upon generations yet unborn. Cos I'm alright jack. Until now it was nothing more than a few skirmishes but how long until the war catches up with THIS generation? How long until the computer hackers turn into assassins? Of course it is the wrong war. Since we have, at best, 20 years in which to enjoy fossil fuels (at current levels of consumption and cheapness) then we will have to transition to the post-carbon world anyway. And that will take 20 to 40 years at best. So we may as well roll up our sleeves and get on with it. Mitigating the risk of climate change comes free with the package.

 

Buy one - get one free.

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View Article  Vegetarians

Isn't funny how everyone with an agenda jumps on the Carbon Cutting bandwagon? There is now a growing chorus of noise from the Vegetarian community. This chorus probably has an element of smug 'told-you-so' about it. Apparently, not eating meat has a lower carbon footprint than a regular diet. In fact this is true. So, 'hear-hear; I hear you cry? Well, all is not as it seems.

 

Although superficially correct there is more to it. Our futures will be more localised. Our choices will be far more limited and we will still have to eat healthily. You will still need a mix of Vitamins and Minerals and these will need to be sourced from a much closer locale to your home than is currently possible. Hence your location will effect you diet. Rich agricultural areas will enjoy variety and a balanced diet. Other human locations may be more marginal or better suited to certain forms of monoculture. So where is this going?

 

In a world of cheap food in enormous variety available from the supermarket we have become used to near infinite choice. These choices allow us to make lifestyle decision based upon ethical and fashionable considerations. These choices would be unimaginable to our grandparents. When these choices are removed the room for fashion, fad and ethics becomes less and less. We will all ending up eating whatever we can afford to eat for our location. This will largely be locally grown fruit and veg. The meat lovers will find their choice restricted. However, it works both ways. The vegetarian may find that their choices are also restricted. Hence, if they wish to maintain their lifestyle choice then will have to go somewhere where it can be maintained. Otherwise vegetarians may find themselves having to eats fish in order to maintain a healthy balance. The message is this: your choices will become more restricted. hence your survival may mean that your lifestyle choice is no longer a matter of choice at all. You will eat whatever is available.

 

Some will argue that their choices will be maintained by trading for the foodstuffs that sustain them. True, but remember that long distant food-trade may well be a distant memory one day. There will also be far less to trade with. As our population has over-shot the carrying capacity of our landmasses then there will not be much food to go around. Hence we will be growing the foodstuffs that support our desired levels of population. Hence you may find that, unless you grow these foods yourself, then your exotic foods may never be seen again where you are.

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View Article  The Two Survivors

Anyone familiar with a ‘Mad Max’ Movie or the work of Kevin Costner in “Waterworld” or “The Postman” will be aware of one Hollywood truism about post-apocalyptic worlds. There are only two types of survivor: “Communities of Builders” and the “Criminal Parasites”. One will farm and produce a sustainable existence through the combined strength of people coming together. The other will just steal everything it needs from those Farmers. They farm Farmers.

 

One of these Survivors has a Future. The other does not. Sadly, this will remain the reason why the Communities of Builders will also be a Community of Soldiers. Maybe “soldiers” is a strong word. Maybe “guardians” is better. There is no point trying to build sustainability if someone will just steal it from you. That is no future for anyone if it perpetuates a cycle of self-destruction.

 

Hence the idealistic utopian future of some environmentalists is nothing more than a fantasy. The future probably lies in fences. The sustainers cannot build unless they can keep the gangsters out. There is no future in serfdom. It is here that the ridiculous and scary right-wing US cult of 'survivalism has a point. These guys may be nuts living up there in a shack in the mountains, but their love of guns probably mean they will keep what is their's. Of course, it isn't that simple. Evil begets evil and guns only lead to killing. A sustainer cannot defend just himself. He must build a community of likeminded people and then defend that community with everything in their arsenals.

 

How do sustainers sustain their lives without armed fortification and conflict? Indeed, for every sustainer there are five reckless thieves out there quite happy to use the fossil fuels you didn't. Demoralising isn't it? The more we build a sustainable future the more short term resources are left for the thieves. The sustainers have the moral high-ground at all times. You see the thieves everywhere, in the 4x4’s or in positions of power. Protect yourself from these parasites and don't be down-heartened. YOU have a future, they do not. But don't live with your head in the clouds. The future is not all peace and love man. Resource scarcity means doing without. Many people don't like doing without. Many people can't do without. Many will be envious of your ability to cope with that crisis in a way that they can't. So, one day they will knock on your door. At first they will ask you. Then they will demand. Then they will take. There are too many people for what little there is left. Maybe the only answer is to remain well hidden and preserve your knowledge and your humanity for a future when all the wars are over and we are left with a much quieter planet. Something resembling the world of Roman times maybe? They lived well.... But they fought wars and had an empire. They had slaves. It is the human condition.

 

Bottom-line - survival is a community project. Expect to have to learn how to plough and to fight.

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View Article  True Sustainability: Cutting Out the Oil

Everything we see needs oil in our ‘modern’ lives. Even our ‘sustainable’ bangles. Every Nuclear Power Station, every wind turbine, every solar panel, every house, every power cable, every GHP, every CHP, every wood burner, every hybrid car, everything. Made of oil, transported by oil, created through releasing oil energy. NONE of it has a future. None of it.

 

Nothing is truly sustainable until Fossil Fuels are taken out of the equation. Oil has to be replaced at every stage of production. Oil has to be completely banished from our economy. Our economy must be decoupled from oil.

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View Article  The Tragedy of Offsetting

Those poor offsetters – haven’t they had a bum rap recently? Every man and his dog has waded in to condemn offsetting as our next big crime against nature. Is it justified? Almost certainly not. Sure, there are a cynical minority who will seek to maximise their profits unscrupulously with unethical or counterproductive Carbon Offsetting schemes – a few rotten apples do not a barrel make. However, most of the criticism is aimed at the philosophical problem that people should be cutting-back/powering-down and not using offsetting as an excuse for ‘business as normal’ (BAN).

 

The problem with all this is that the vast majority of people who offset are the kind of conscientious people who are already bolting on the solar panels and changing their energy suppliers to green energy. Those who don’t give a damn will not have voluntarily spent money on tree planting anyway. So who are these minority of people who are trying to buy themselves out of carbon debt? Well, politicians, big business, marketing folk - the usual suspects mostly. However, if you read some of the anti-offsetting polemic (at such places as www.planestupid.com) you would think that any person thinking of offsetting some aspect of their lives (that they haven’t been able to forego) are guilty of poking the eyes out of Pandas. Some of the dogma now bandied around defies all rational thinking. The Ecologist Magazine now actively discourages its readers from Offsetting and now wants them to invest their money in buying tracts of mature rain forest. HELLO! Mature trees absorb little CO2. What are you thinking? The crazy loons publicised an interesting but irrelevant report that showed that blowing more CO2 over a tree didn't mean it was all absorbed. This, they claimed, showed that tree planting "didn't work". HELLO! CRAZY PEOPLE!! Growing trees absorb CO2. The more CO2 we produce the more trees you have to plant. Unbelievable. They still teach photosynthesis in schools don't they or am I going nuts?

 

This tars everyone with the same brush. For every high-flyer, who takes pride in their five foreign holidays a year, there is some poor sucker who has to fly for Business or to visit sick relatives. These people may not have a choice in the short term. They may therefore choose to invest some ethical capital in a scheme that counter-acts the harm they are doing. It doesn’t mean that they think that makes it alright. It just recognises that they are on a different part of the path and are working on the next stage.

 

The big issues with offset-bashing is that it will kill this form of ethical investment just when it needs a massive injection of capital. Once the seeds of chaos and confusion are sown people will do without ethical investments. It will put them off. Let’s face it, where is the damage? Do we starve reforestation projects of millions of pounds of investment because of some childish fears that a few trees might burn down? No, this is terribly dangerous. People should invest now. The concept of “offsetting” may be just the motivation some people need. Once you remove that you remove baby with the bathwater. That is crazy. Just because people make the right decisions for the wrong reasons doesn’t make it wrong. This kind of 'holier than thou' politics just turns people off.

 

So, what do we do? Certainly we need a major rebranding exercise. If the green-thought-police are so offended by the very word “offset” then let us call it something else. Instead of “offset” let us call it “adjustment”. Henceforth all such schemes are generically “Carbon Debt Negation” schemes. Not “Target Zero” or “Carbon Neutral” but “Ethical Carbon Investments”. These can be broken down into “Carbon Sink Investments” and “Carbon Displacement Initiatives”. These must be governed by strict rules: they must be a net drain of atmospheric CO2. ‘Displacing’ your future carbon growth just means you stand still. OK, better than nothing. This is certainly a lot better then the fraudulent use of Kyoto agreements to get cash simply be threatening to do something to increase Carbon Production. The money must encourage people to move to greener technologies than would have otherwise been outside of their spending power. It must do something new.

 

What about tree planting? This is a carbon sink. And we need as much of this as possible. It must be in trust, i.e., not temporary to be sold off for logging at some future date. If it burns down then it will need to be insured to make sure it is replanted. A small proportion of all tree stock burns down every year just like a small number of people die in car accidents. However, we don’t react by staying in bed for the rest of our lives. We offset the risk by driving safely and insuring your car.

 

What about research that says that trees give off carbon? Science can give us information about the best trees to plant and how best to plant them and where to plant them. However, millions of years of trees ended up as coal and there is an awful lot of coal in the ground. So please don’t kid yourselves that trees are not a carbon sink. Lots of them, over a long enough time, in the right place, certainly are. But the more we know the better if we are to make trees an effective carbon sink.

 

What of the criticism that Trees take 100 hundred years to absorb their Carbon? Yes, this is self-evident. This is a lifetime choice and the golden rule is that you choose any investment for its long term returns. This argument revolves around the concept of keeping Fossil Fuels in the ground NOW to maximise the anti-global-warming effects. A great concept but change will only happen slowly. Too slowly for some. If we burn these fuels now but absorb the CO2 over the next ...   more »

View Article  The Awful Truth: Population Over Shoot

It isn’t easy being green. How can I earn money without my Car? How can I run my economy if I don’t fly? All good questions. Everything must change. It will change slowly. Adjustments must be made. How difficult will it be? Many will be coy about how difficult our future is. Mostly they want to pretend that it will be easy. They pretend that the worst than could happen is that you take a bus rather than drive.

 

If only it would be that easy. We wish. There is more at stake than just modes of transport or whether the Chinese will every drive cars or own fridges. Human existence is at stake (at worst) and our economic stability is at stake (at best).

 

Let’s explain: our economies are not steady-state. They continually grow. The fuel that makes them grow is fossil fuel. It is like sunshine & water for a plant. You take it away and it stops growing. Economists talk about ‘decoupling’ only in terms of economic growth not linked to increased energy usage. There is no evidence for this. It isn’t possible. Mankind did not get to this level of sophistication and industrial development without vast resources of cheap energy. Anyone who tells you otherwise is delusional. This is intuitively true. Your pour plant food on a plant and it grows.

 

If you take that food away, or ration it, something stops growing. The economy stops generating more wealth. It stops growing until another source of energy is found. For it is not Oil that fuels the economy it is energy. The only decoupling we should be concerned with is decoupling our economy from Fossil Fuels. It is energy we need. Energy is required for a steady state non growth sustainable economy. The level of economic activity is directly related to the amount of energy that can be captured and utilised. This is directly proportional to other natural resources such as food. (Biomass is essentially organic materials, food, that is turned into energy.)

 

So if all this energy comes from the sun what level of economic activity is possible? Well, if you measure economic activity as GDP then the desirable level is relative to your population size. Herein lies the problem. Our ability to generate food from finite resources is directly related to our supply of energy. Energy can supplement the amount of natural energy would be normally consumed in the manufacture of our food. Currently it take nine times as much energy to make our food than it actually delivers as calories into our bodies. This is a frightening statistic. Nine time. Nine Calories of Oil energy to yield one calorie of food energy. If you remove the other nine calories just how much food energy can we sustain?

 

Our amount of food is also directly related to population growth. Energy = economic activity = food = population. Reduce the energy and everything else falls like a pack of cards. When the collapse comes the economy will meltdown and no-one will have a job. Then people without jobs will have no money. Property prices will collapse. People lose their homes. Homeless people with no jobs and no money soon find that they have no food either. Quickly follows social collapse.

 

Our only parachute promising a soft landing it to ensure that the collapse is handled as a gentle slide. Economic progress must halt. Food production will slow down. Birth rates plummet. This will be hard if you are a politician and used to perpetual growth. How do you sell this? The answer is you don’t. You will continue business as usual until the collapse will be it most damaging. Nothing you can do will stop the collapse but you can be ready. You can have your lifeboat ready.

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View Article  Rights and Responsibilities

Few people are yet ready to accept this cost of Carbon in their lives. Yes, they will have to, but if they aren’t ready what will you do? Persuade them that it is in their best interest? Yeah? Oh, we are back to offsetting again. I guess it comes down to how you feel about your fellow human beings. Are they good or bad? Wise or foolish? If you believe only the worst about your fellow man then you believe you must remove their choices and rights. This negates al responsible argument. This prescribes dictatorship. That has no future. People must be willing volunteers so the best we can do it to take action at governmental and international levels to edit people’s choices.

 

People really don’t like having their ‘rights’ taken away. However, people have strange concepts of what is a right. No one questions that you can’t kill another man. You cannot steal from another. You cannot take away another’s future. However, people only understand these restrictions because they feel it is equitable, i.e., it protects them, AND because they can join up the dots between cause and effect. The trouble with something happening a long way in the future to somebody else is that people can’t join up the dots. They don’t see what it has to do with them. If they fly away on holiday today then come home safe and sound. No one gets hurt surely? It doesn’t hurt them directly therefore it is a victimless crime. We borrow this right from someone’s future. This right does not belong to us. It is stolen. Someone else will never be able to live, let alone travel, because of our ‘rights’. This is pretty shocking stuff. All because we can’t join up the dots.

 

It used to be said that Property is Theft. In our new reality the truth is that most of our perceived 'rights' are in fact just privileges we stole from somebody else. Maybe it is time to share them a little more widely. We have this false concept that somehow we ‘earnt’ these privileges. Does anyone in a rich Northern minority country work harder than a poor farmer in Africa? Doubtful. His family may well die of thirst or hunger because you earnt the right to his share of global resources – clean air and fossil fuel. Does this mean he didn’t deserve them? Those rights are equal. You have the right to earn more money but no one has the right to consume a disproportionate share to the detriment of another man.

 

Through ingenuity and hard work should allow to you to exploit resources more efficiently and generate wealth and prosper, this cannot be a tax on another man. This other man should have equal access and opportunity as you. He may choose to not take that opportunity or he may not have the aptitude to exploit it but, no one has a right to take that opportunity away.

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View Article  The Real Price of Anything

What is the real price of anything? Do you look at the cost of Solar Panels or Organic Vegetables and say to your self “this is all out of my price range”? Hold on a second. Apart from entertaining the ‘false concept of choice’ (that we discuss separately here) this presents a fallacy. It is not that these renewable resources are expensive, it is that everything else is subsidised. Think about it, cheap oil subsidises everything. When the cheap oil is gone THEN what will be the price of everything?

 

I often look at the success of Fair Trade Coffee and marvel at how some retail outlets ONLY stock such items. I wonder if we will see the final death of non-Fair Trade and non-Organic. What would that mean? If you no longer had the choice and that was the new normal? It would represent the end of a subsidy. The end of the Carbon Subsidy. That is all. The end of one kind of economics and he beginning of a new way of balancing the books. Is this the end of choice? No, not at all. Our choices have always been distorted through the looking glass of oil. Our lives viewed through a lens smeared with oil. And this hid our own future from us.

 

The next time we look at this ‘choice’ tell your self that the price difference is the cost of having that same thing next year. It is like putting money in the bank. You are saving up for a future. It is an investment in a non-throwaway tomorrow. That extra price is the cost of tomorrow.

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View Article  The Real Cost To Our Children

Time was that we thought the end of oil and Global Warming were something that our children’s children would have to deal with. Quickly this became our children’s problem. (I recall studying under a far-sighted Geography teacher in the 1980’s who told us that the end of North Sea Oil would be our problem.) Now it is our problem. Events are catching up with us. Now we realise that actually it was our parent’s problem – but they didn’t know it - so it is too late to do anything about it for them, but not for us.

 

Where does this all go? The unthinkable. The unspeakable truth of our over-populated unsustainable World. It is no longer a case of discussing whether it is us, our children or our children’s children. It is now a case of how much do YOU wish to suffer? Do YOU want to grow old slowly and die one day in your sleep? Or would you prefer your retirement to be spent in economic misery wondering where the next meal would come from. And this is YOU. What fate our children?

 

It is not longer a case of a problem being passed on to our children’s children….

 

It is a case of our children will never have children. They will be lucky if they do. The problem is not their’s to inherit. They will never be born to inherit it.

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View Article  Peak Oil: Down to the Very Last Drop

How will mankind use its last drop of oil? How do you think? Write in and we’ll publish your better ideas! Here are two alternatives:

 

Sustainers: the last drop of oil is used in the crane that fitted the last blade to the last wind-turbine we will ever need.

 

Parasites: the last drop will be delivered to a F1 car. Hundreds of men in anoraks (who have walked long distances) have gathered for the spectacle. The engine turns over and they all sigh and then cheer. Then the last engine dies. Then everyone looks at each other and ask ‘what do we do now?’. So they all walk home again. They walk home past the unfinished solar power plants and lifeless fields and think to themselves “well, that was fun, what shall we do for a laugh tomorrow?”

 

Of course, many will argue that we should never extract that Oil. They are right. But, realistically this won’t stop the parasites from taking that Oil anyway. So we must think of using that enormous endowment of nature’s trapped sunshine to build a future sustainable society BEFORE we piss it away of motor-racing, wars and other terrible things. We must use it to build the future and break free from the Fossil Fuel Dependency syndrome. Lets build that future now before we tempted to start extracting all that Coal and Shale Oil – now that is a real disaster. We need to use the remaining endowment with vastly more wisdom that we used the first half.

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View Article  New Realities = Voting with Your Wallet

YOU are shifting the paradigm so make sure everyone else understands this is normal and act shocked if they are stuck in their selfish fossil-fuel-driven ways. Act with astonishment if your neighbour drives a 4x4. Act as if they are driving a combine harvester covered in razor blades! Develop your own peer pressure.

 

When they tell you it is none of your business and it is there ‘freedom’ you are contravening and how hard they have worked to get the deserved little luxuries, blah, blah, blah just act as if they have just told you they have invested in a Death Camp. Just keep that vision in your mind. They are wrong and you are right. Think of the most socially unacceptable thing a person can do next to rape or murder. That selfish act is depriving a man of his food of his livelihood. It is the water he should be drinking. The job he should be working on. Our freedoms come at a price of other people’s slavery, suffering and death. Make the connection and make them see that too.

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View Article  Why Can't Our Leaders Lead?

When it comes to the unwillingness of politicians to act on peak oil and global warming you are left wondering – do they know something we don’t? In the USA, as Al Gore perfectly pointed out in “An Inconvenient Truth” the US Administration’s refusal to enforce new automobile efficiency standards not only threatens US Energy Security but undermines their competitiveness. Why would any sane rational human being deliberately do something that is so obviously against the public interest? Why pursue such narrow self-interest even if it is so self-evidently suicidal?

 

The answer is simple. Politicians do not operate in the Public Interest. They operate in the interests of wealth and entrenched power. What they know is that measures to benefit untold millions on unborn children won’t fatten their pay cheques or bring them the power and prestige they crave. Research undertaken by Noam Chomsky in “Failed States” (2006) revealed how every major policy decision arising in the last US Election actually went in the opposite direction to Public Opinion. He most obvious example was Medicare. The public wanted more but the Politicians delivered less. Why? What do they know?

 

The truth is, although the public vote for Politicians the actual policies are largely directed by special interest groups. In the US the policy of Free Public Health Care is driven not by the needs of those polled on the street but by the Health Insurance Companies. This is not the democracy you want yet it is the democracy that is paid for. And don’t even get us started on the distortion in the media about the issues. For an appraisal of this read Robert Kennedy Jnr’s “Crimes against Nature”.

 

Democracy is a little more vibrant on the European side of the pond. However, the result is much the same. The continued inaction of Aviation Fuel Taxation across Europe is another indicator that those in power really seem to know something we don’t. Their message screams loudly from every orifice of Government and it is this: Business as Usual please.

 

This is why two forms of action are necessary. Firstly grass roots, and secondly, international. There is no future for International Trade so GATT must be scrapped and placed by International accords on Energy Security, Food Security and Energy Taxation. If every country acts in the same way then no country gains unfair advantage over any other. Hence Politicians can point to international needs for why the economy doesn’t grow or there is less choice on the shelves. Of course, no politician wants to be the first to say this unthinkable thing. Sacrifice. Who will step up to the plate? Who will go that extra mile? It is a modern marvel of our western democratic model that it is so able to over-rule the will of the people in the interest of a minority. What does the minority know that we don’t? Why doesn’t his powerful minority act in their own self-interest and seek to protect that planet and the people on it?

 

Methinks they have a big rocket ship and all planning to take their money and power to some other corner of the universe leaving the rest of us to burn. Absurd? Of course. But how do sane people behave so irrationally? The Documentary “The Corporation” provided an answer to this. The Corporation’s excuse is that it is legally bound to maximise profit in the present day not sustainability in the longer term. In this way it could be demonstrated that the psychology is essentially that of a psychopath. Well, if Incorporated Business’s have no collective responsibility, but are legally individuals who behave as psychopaths, where does this leave democratic Government? Are they axe murderers? They are meant to be accountable but are not.

 

Final analysis: the human triumph over energy shortages and Climate Change will be, essentially, triumphs in the reformation of Democracy. Either that, or the people we elect really do know something we don’t.

 

Please write in with your pet theories as to why Politicians won’t do anything. Here’s an example: Politician’s won’t do anything because they know they have captured Flying Saucers at Area 51. These flying saucers have some wonderful technology that replace all Fossil Fuels. As soon as Fossil Fuels run out it will be revealed to the World. Likewise with Global Warming, they have a special shield they will put around the planet to deflect excess solar radiation negating the Greenhouse Effect. However, if they have all of this why aren’t they using it? For some unnecessarily complicated reason that have to wait for it all to get really bad so that the public will give them a licence to do something about it. In the meantime they can use the chaos caused to enhance their power by going to war over scarce natural resources or blame terrorists for extra security blah blah.

 

You can be as conspiratorial as you like. We’ll publish the best theories right here! You never know. Some important person might actually read them and start to think that all this secrecy and inaction is really not in their best interest at all. Or we might be spot on and suddenly find that this dot com is suddenly an un-web-site. But conspiracy theories are fun aren’t they? The more you think about them rationally the more ridiculous they are. This only leaves one conclusion.

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View Article  The Journey to the Future

What to do? Start a journey with us. We don’t quite know how it will end but we know how it will begin. It starts here. The first day of the rest of your life with a commitment to change something new every day for the rest of your life. Making incremental steps to reduce your footprint to sustainable levels in the hope that we can salvage some of the better features of our modernity. You just can’t do nothing and live with yourself. When your children ask you ‘what did you do?’ can you look them in the eye? If you don’t do anything do you think your children’s children will have children at all? You are fighting a war for THEM. The war is with yourself. A call to arms.

 

It doesn’t matter if your view of the future is utterly grim (i.e., destruction of the human race kind of grim) or overly-rosy (wind-turbines and hydrogen powered cars). All that matter is that the future will be very different. Energy will be very expensive. Consumer goods will become rare. There will be no more consumerism. There will be no more fossil fuels. Energy will be clean and sustainable. There just won’t be much of it. Hence life will be simpler and slower. The economy will not be an engine for growth. There will be no time or money or energy for ambitious foreign policy, armies, warships, bomber planes or any of this paraphernalia. Things will stay the same for long periods and things will not always get better.

 

The greatest treasury we leave our descendents will be the contents of our landfill sites.

 

Free-market dogma suggests that the free hand of the market will conjure up some technological marvel to cure our ills. This is both right and wrong. The free market did indeed conjure up the early oil exploration but that was easy – you just had to drill in the right place. A free market didn’t exactly put a man on the moon. The market responds to price triggers. Technology becomes viable as the substitute's price increases. However, that substitute may require 50 years development whilst the price of oil has just gone up a million%. How quickly can a free market respond? In any changing market there is a time of social adjustment and it will be painful for many. Your economy may completely collapse and your people starve well before the price mechanism conjures up anything other than fuel poverty. Our free markets have done nothing but conjure up greed and the ever speedier gobbling up of finite resources. So we had all better hope that things happen very slowly for the free market to adjust to the new reality. The fear is that the pursuit of short term profit will lead to unwise investment decisions based upon the delusional premise of unlimited cheap oil.

 

Investment capital needs to be released into our futures and our commons. Not the past and the private. Failure to do so will lead to human suffering. Free markets do not always relieve human suffering if there is profit in that suffering. Hence the pain must be felt by the investment bankers, insurance firms, the WTO and financiers. Business is good. Small Business is good when the individuals running it are personally accountable for the actions of their Business activity. Likewise free markets are ‘good’ and the same is true for ‘democracy’. Sadly much of our ‘free markets’ are not free in the Adam Smith-sense of the word, nor are our ‘democracies’ democratic.

Hence the message is that you cannot wait for other people, either politicians or big business to prepare you for what has to be done. YOU must do what is necessary for YOU. And what you do is not divorced from the community, society and economy around you. Hence the wisdom in your buying power will effect the market and the Big Business. You control them, not vice versa. Likewise with politics. You vote for them. If you don’t like them find someone else to vote for or stand yourself. It is not true to say that you don’t know what to do. You have to look for the answers, and they are here.

 

The conclusion is that when we are all taking responsibility for our future and we all act to prepare ourselves for the future then the Market and Democracy will also work. They will not, by themselves, do anything useful. WE are the Market and we are the Politicians of this new society. They are not divorced from us. They only appear divorced because not enough people take positive actions. Not enough people care. What has to happen before you care? Do you have to be hungry, jobless or cold before you care? I would prefer to see that day off well in advance.

 

What will happen? Carbon rationing, i.e., fossil fuel rationing is heading to a gas pump near you. Will you be ready? And when we say ‘gas pump’ we don’t just mean the transport sector. We mean every aspect of the economy from building new homes to the food on your plate. You ration energy and you ration the economy. Hence we will need to find alternatives means of existence. If you are not ready then you will find this painful and you will suffer. If you have spent thirty years in preparation then you will find the change much easier.

 

How can I stop partying when everyone else is enjoying themselves? I am sacrificing something of mine and they are stealing it from me! Shouldn’t they suffer too? Oh, they will, in the longer term. Well, by doing it slowly day by day. By educating other people. It seems unfair when you have such a good habit in recycling every last item only to see your neighbours bin full to the brim. Why should you bother when they don’t? Because you ...   more »

View Article  Illusions of Progress

It is not your fault, but you are responsible. If you are reading these words you are using electricity. Had a hot shower this morning? Think you will be able to have one thirty years from now? Either through political action or scarcity all Fossil Fuel-based energy is going to be EXTREMELY expensive within 30 years.

 

So, what did we get for throwing away our children’s inheritance? An epidemic of cancer? Are you happier for the McDonalds you ate today? Unparalleled comforts have bred unequalled levels of obesity, idleness, boredom, unhappiness, drug-taking, crime, social problems, family breakdown and over-population. Everywhere where the cheap oil disease has struck, we see human beings huddling together around the source of energy rather than their source of food. We are like moths to the candle flame. Just look at the shanty-towns of the third world or the global history of peasants leaving the land to work in the city in search of a better life.

 

In reality we are like an early aviation pioneer who has strapped wings to his arms. He has jumped of a cliff and is falling. The trouble is he doesn’t think he is falling. In fact he thinks he is flying. He thinks he will fly forever. In fact he is about to hit the ground. Very hard.

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View Article  Its in the Cinema Stupid

This must have happened to all of us at some point. You know. That moment when you wake up and wonder “Just when did the entire world go stupid?” This moment occurred about 8 years ago when my wife and I tuned in to (what we thought) was a TV documentary on weight loss. Imagine it - a bunch of people turn up to a health farm and everything seems normal until the trans-gender personality turns up and the video diaries turn into rants. Then we realised that we had been duped. It wasn’t a documentary at all. It was “Reality TV”. That was it. The age of stupid had officially begun. Endemol had won.

 

Every day it gets worse. Between satellite and cable we must have well over a hundred channels, but nothing is ever on. Even if you boil it down to just the documentary channels then the daily schedule looks like endless repeats of war history, monster trucks on ice, lions fighting sharks… And so on - ad nauseum. Will any of this really matter to a single soul? No. Nope. Not a jot. (Not many Russian Tanks on the High Street. No lions bugging the sharks down on the local river. No over-sized SUV’s doing hand-brake turns around the Shopping Centre.) The things that really matter…. Well, you don’t hear about them. They don’t get a lot of airplay.

 

Why do we tolerate this endless parade of irrelevence on our screens? It is in marked contrast to the fact that there realy is so much real “reality” out there in the world. Really interesting stuff. A couple of weeks ago the BBC showed a landbreaking documentary of the future of farming in a resource-depleted world. It was on prime time. It revealed just what kind of transformation our modern industrial agricultural system would have to undergo if it were to sustain in the second half of the age of oil. This stuff is really, really (I mean REALLY) important. But it merits less attention in our TV schedules than an update from a Dog Show. How did we get to this state of affairs? Why do we have to be so stupid? Is the real real world so terrible that we have drifted off into a fantasy version? We should be glued to our screens nightly trying to understand the intimate details of Climate Science and how it will effect our food chain. The DIY stores should be full of people hunting down solar panels and extra loft insulation.The TV schedules should be full of it as a public service. We should be realising that our lifestyles are about to change.

 

But isn’t that the problem? “Lifestyle”. The very word conjures up all that is ephemeral and passing. Cosmetic. Fashionible. Last week’s rubiks cube. Next week’s skateboard. We crave something that is continually changing and somehow ‘new’. We are bored of Climate Change. So bored that we don’t even want to consider what could be even worse than Climate Change. We confuse stuff we need to know with stuff we don’t. If we ignore the problem long enough then just maybe it will go away - all by itself. As humans we have a very short attention span for anything that passes in Geological time. Human life is too short. We can’t be bothered. On a planetary scale we revel in our own stupidity because focussing on what is wrong (for long enough to change it) – well, that take too much effort. We like our lifestyles of consumption. Anyone who suggest this paradigm may have to change is a kill-joy, a bore, a meany – but to ignore this problem only makes it worse. We could transition slowly and gentley to a world of scarce & expensive food and energy. Or we could change very quickly and painfully – at the last minute, when we have to, when it is of least convenience and it will cause the most damage. Gee, we are so stupid. This is like waiting until your 64th birthday to think about saving for a pension.

 

By the time it is too late we will look back at the mess and wonder “What were we thinking?” Why did we have to spend so long living in the past? We could have recognised that fossil fuels were only a temporary, and highly polluting, interlude in human existence. Yet we cling to them as like a junkie to his crack pipe. It is such a tipsy-topsy-turvy world were the crazy voices (who insist that there is no alternative other than to fill our little world full of long-buried-carbon) can even dare to paint themselves as “modern”. How did they carry off that propaganda coup? So, c’mon everybody! Let’s all live in a Museum-life where everything is just fine, now and forever. It isn’t.

 

Technology has moved on now. Our understanding has grown. We have the tools to change. We are meant to be smart, not stupid. The opportunity is there for the taking. But we don’t transition because soft and gentle voices whisper soothingly in our ears that we have to stay firmly in the reassuring past to be futuristic. So we sit comfortably somewhere between the Steam Age and the Petroleum Age. We move through the past looking for a future… Embracing coal and rejecting wind, getting our basic foodstuffs from further and further away – it takes a peculiar form of self-censorship to maintain this delusion…. That the past is the future. This strange ability to hold two completely opposite views, of reality, inside your head, at the same time and treat both as if they are true, was a concept adopted by George Orwell in “1984” in order for Winston Smith to love Big Brother.

 

So here we are, full circle - back to Endemol and the advent of the age of stupid. I hope that, when you read this, you have a very non-stupid moment and decide to ...   more »

View Article  The Future of Activism

There has been a long running and subversive campaign against the Chelsea Tractor. Whatever your feelings about this it represents an idea of social action that could lead in interesting directions. Imagine a World only a few years from now when it is not only 4x4’s that earn the wrath of a growing number of the population. What kind of revolution would this be brewing?

 

After the 4x4 then what: Sports Cars? Any car that is Automatic? Any petrol driven vehicle? Any car longer the 4 meters? How about other sectors of the economy? How about active campaigns to shame people out of buying and using foreign holidays? Imagine coming back to your house after two weeks in the Seychelles to find a polite notice shoved through your letterbox reminding you of your poor choice of lifestyle. What other lifestyle choices could be subject to this peer pressure?

 

How about a leaflet campaign aimed simply against large houses? What about Supermarket Trolleys full of non-organic food? Should we organise “Parking Tickets” to be handed out outside of Supermarkets? How would people feel then? What if you had one too many lights burning at night or you used a Patio Heater? Would a knock on the door and a ‘Poor Lifestyle Choice’ poster emblazoned on your front door make you feel? Is this a vision of horror? Is this terrorism? Or is it the sign of things to come? What sort of world would this be? Is it vigilantism? Would it lead to violence. Should one breed of future-conscious people be allowed to make their anger so clear to the wasters next door?

 

Maybe they should. Maybe this is the next step beyond peer pressure. Maybe this is the social revolution that will save the future for our children. So let’s start that revolution. This revolution will be subtle. It will crop up in conversation. Drop a few hints here and there that you do not approve of someone’s lifestyle choice. It is not longer a question of choice. THEIR choice kills YOUR future. It is no choice at all. If Governments can’t act then everyone else should. I will not sacrifice my children on the altar of another’s selfishness. Remove the choice. Make that choice unacceptable. Don’t intimidate. Just inform, guide and educate. Create the new norm. Just be proactive. When someone switches the lights on on a bright sunny day ask them why. Then tut tut disapprovingly. Raise your eyes to heaven and think to your self “My Children will never forgive you”. Poor choices have no future. Your choices are not freedom. They are slavery. When you have no future you are a slave to your today.

 

Sure, there will be those die-hards who hold out and hold on to the conspicuous consumption. They will wear it as a badge of honour. The more others cut back the more they will consume. They will assume that the rules don’t apply to them. They will live a lonely existence.

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View Article  What is Transition?

In February 2009 The Transition Network published its long-awaited “Who we are and what we do” paper. I suppose I could just cut’n’paste that here and be done with this blog. However it would be lost on everyone. For a start – it was 24 pages long. Hardly a snappy advert. So let’s talk about why we are here in our own words. To explain what we ARE it is worthwhile saying what we ARE NOT.

 

Transition Towns are not an environmental organisation. Yes they may meet at "Environment Centres" but so do Amnesty International and the National Childbirth Trust. You wouldn’t describe either of those as environmental groups. One of this country’s leading groups working on tackling Climate Change is actually Oxfam. Funnily enough, no one describes them as an environmental group. To understand Transition Towns you have to forget what you think you know.

 

These groups describe themselves as community action projects working towards the decarbonisation and relocalisation of their town. If they wish to preserve some species or some specific habitat then that will be the human species and the habitat in that town. They are not here to ‘save the planet’. It will keep spinning quite well without us….. They may share a membership with both Friends of the Earth and the local The Women’s Institute, but Transition is quite different and distinct. To quote the Transition Wirral brochure “It is no longer about saving the planet, but about saving ourselves”.

 

So what is “decarbonisation”? It is the removal of fossil fuels from our lives. Oil, Gas & Coal. This may seem a little crazy at first but it isn’t just us. The term “decarbonisation” is now widely used within Government circles. I first read the term in Government’s ‘Stern Report’ (about the economic cost of climate change). Most Economists, Geologists, Scientists, Politicians and Civil Servants are pretty much aiming at the removal of fossil fuels (for energy & transport) from the economy by no later than 2050. Even US President Barack Obama said last year that "...what we must do now, for the sake of our economy, [and] our security, we must end the age of oil in our time... If anyone tries to tell you otherwise, they are either fooling themselves, or they're trying to fool you. “The reason why is simple: our standard of living will decline if we remain addicted to fossil fuels. I will return to that topic later on.

So what is “relocalisation”? Relocalisation is the result of breaking our addiction to fossil fuels. When you have less oil you can’t travel as far and neither can your food. Without Oil & Gas the farming system has no agro-chemicals to keep up yields. Hence more land and people will enter the food production system locally. “Local” is also more resilient. Less vulnerable. It is a mechanism of security to replace the insecurity of food, oil and gas shipped from thousands of miles away. Instead of this global insecurity we will better rely upon the security from within our own local community. We will transition to stronger communities.

So why a “Transition” movement? You might think that the Government has its grip on the issue. Think of our addiction to oil as being like alcoholism. Although you rely upon the NHS to make you well, Social Services to clean up the mess and the Government to tax vodka, we still have groups like Alcoholics Anonymous. The Government can’t make stronger communities. Only a community can do that itself. The voluntary sector always has a role as both carrot and stick. We lead Government opinion not follow. As the Minister for Energy and Climate Change, Ed Milliband, said last year “….local campaigns and action whether it’s the Transition Town movement or pioneering local authorities - are absolutely essential. ……because they can help create a movement for change. We need people not just to come with us, but to push us for more. We need popular pressure - pressure on me, on local councilors, on our public services and businesses.”

 

So how will our standard of living suffer without this transition? Traditional thinking (the kind we need to change) assumes that the economy will always grow and there will always be more of everything. Things will always get “better” where “better” = more stuff.  This concept is on a collision course with our finite physical resources – be it the availability of cheap energy or just places to dump our waste. Such warnings are hundreds of years old but it was not until the 1970’s that mankind first managed to exceed nature’s ability to support our population’s standard of living. What we are doing is no longer sustainable. Of course ‘wolf’ has been cried before so many times that it has left us lazy in the assumption that it will be alright again, this time, as it has always been in the past. However the evidence is now getting, let’s say, more ‘interesting’.

 

“Interesting” is what you might call the hole in the Ozone Layer.  “Interesting” is Climate Change. The war in Darfur is interesting, as was the war in Iraq. Even more interesting is the recent report by the International Energy Agency that predicts an oil “crunch” by 2013. (By ‘crunch’ they mean shortages and sky-high prices.) The signs are all there. There is a very slow unraveling in history. So slow we are barely noticing it happening to us. But it is happening. And in OUR time.

 

But we have an alternative. The continued consumption of non-renewable resource can be contained. Man is ingenious but we are not very forward looking. We are programmed to runaway from immediate threats but we struggle to prepare for anything that will happen five years from now. This takes vision…. But no more vision than it takes to save for a Pension. Pensions are somehow “normal” – a social norm. So what will it take?

 

If we choose a new and alternative ...   more »

View Article  False Concepts of Choice

How many times have you heard that such and such alternative fuel/technology/idea will never catch on? Despite the massive mountain the Hydrogen technology has to climb in order to offer the utility of oil those who say that it is a non-starter are missing the point. To judge any technology by comparing it with what is readily available today is to revel in a false concept of choice. If the choice is between starving and an organic apple you eat the apple. There is no real choice is there? The rosy, disease-free, apple flown fresh from New Zealand gives the false illusion of choice. In reality you don’t hold it as an apple in your hand. In fact you hold a barrel of oil on your shoulders and boy is all that carbon heavy! No choice. Eat the local apple.

 

Many forms of sustainable technology such as Wind Turbines have been condemned as non-cost justifiable on the basis that oil is so cheap. This is a false idea. Oil is heavily subsidised. Our culture, economy and society are geared towards accepting oil as the ‘norm’. It isn’t normal, it is a very brief (in geological terms) and very finite mineral resource that will be gone in the flash of an eye. Only in human life-span terms is the oil-age significant. Our Governments have engineered a system whereby oil is essential for every aspect of modern life with the false belief that oil was inexhaustible. Even if it flowed from the ground as some kind of cornucopian vision you couldn’t possibly burn it all for the damage it would do to the human life support system, i.e., our eco system.

 

So, please, let compare like for like. TODAY we live in a world swimming up to its necks in cheap oil. Take that away and you hit rocks. There is no substitute. When it is gone it is gone. Look at the world as if it has no oil and had no oil. Then the fog would be lifted from your eyes and you will see the world as it truly is. Far simpler, far slower, far less choice.

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View Article  Excuses Excuses

Some people will never change until it is too late. They will suffer the consequences. They will deny it is happening even if the evidence is staring them in the face. The reasons? Well, anyone who tries to tell them what to do is either an ‘environmentalist’ or a ‘conspiracy theorist’:

 

·     Environmentalists have beards (even the women) and wear open toed sandals and hair suits. They believe that human beings are scum who should rot in favour of lesser-spotted squirrels. They are against any free market or any human economic activity whatsoever. In fact the entire ‘green’ movement is Communism by the back door hence is dangerous rubbish.

·     Conspiracy theorists are wacko’s who believe that the world is controlled by a secret world government. The world is going to end and everyone will die because of tidal waves, the black death, global warming, of whatever else these guys dream up. It is all nonsense and they are trying to make us feel bad. It is a form of mental illness and is dangerous rubbish

    

What other excuses do we hear?

 

·          I can’t be bothered.

·          YOU Drive a BMW!

    

What’s the answer?

 

·     Environmentalists. The truth is this stereotype used to be a fair approximation and such people exist. However, this is less and less so because the main stream of society is now concerned about the future of their children. Hence is the human biosphere that is central to the new ‘greenies’. These are ordinary people and Business Men and Women who are very afraid that life will change for the worse. How can I invest in my Business if some economic collapse will ruin me? How should I raise my children if they have no future? Now it is the preoccupation of economists and housewives everywhere. It is mainstream so please keep up. The new mainstream care little for the ecosystem of the lesser spotted squirrel than they do about their own very survival and quality of life. What is the point of saving for a pension when I might starve to death in thirty years? Maybe I should do something useful with that money now? If everyone started to think like that you would see a sea-change in society and a breakdown in confidence.

·     Conspiracy theorists. Yes, there are grim nutcases out there for who may welcome grim news about the pending destruction of life as we know it. However, when everyone believes this is what is at stake then maybe the deniers will sit up and take notice. When the head of Corporations invest Billions in preparing for the new reality then you should probably take notice too.

·     I can’t be bothered. This is the false concept of choice. You can choose not to be bothered when there is an available substitute that means you THINK you have options. Oil is one of those substitutes. Whilst it is cheap and plentiful then you can always argue that you don’t need to grow your own food because the Supermarket does it cheaper. You will be bothered when you are hungry and by then it will probably be too late.

·     YOU drive a BMW. True but this statement is an excuse not a reason. Such people who use such excuses will never change their ways. This is a diversionary tactic. Think about it, even in a world where everyone walked these people would still have an excuse to drive. Expecting someone who educates you to be holier than thou is unrealistic. It is like a Tennis pro being coached by someone who is an ex-Tennis pro. The Coach is no longer able to do all the things the pro can but the pro doesn’t turn around and say ‘why should I listen to you?’. This, of course, would be absurd. The truth is that we all need to set a good example to others and our words will gain authority if we practice what we preach. There is nothing to say that the BMW driver has not chosen the most fuel efficient model with the six speed manual gear-box and then converted in to LPG. His or her driving style & mileage may result in lower personal yearly GHG emissions than 95% of car drivers. However, their choice will always be a symbol to those who can’t be bothered to make these changes themselves.

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View Article  Conspicuous Consumption

Conspicuous Consumption will be the death of us. The people who are quite happy to tell you that it isn’t there problem, somebody else should do something or that they are utterly helpless are the same people who switch on every light in their house or office, then leave them on, all the time. This is ignorance. This is moral blindness. It is a disease that we need to expose and eradicate by converting these poor souls to a better way.

 

Rampant Consumerism has no future. Many are proud of how much they can consume. It is a badge of honour. I recall from personal experience walking into a kitchen at work on a bright sunny day to find the light on. I switched it off and proceeded to make a drink. The next lady who walked in switched the light back on and demanded to know “Who KEEPS switching the light off!?” – as if this was something terrible. For the campaigners amongst us, this attitude can be quite demoralising. Maybe the thing to do is to memorise the tonnes of Carbon that light produced last year and remind that lady of her responsibility.

 

What is it with people and lights (& warmth)? Studies show that although we all crave light and warmth we can actually do with far less of both in many circumstances. Fretful parents believe that their baby’s rooms need to be far warmer than is actually healthy. If you are bought up in a warm house then you will always expect warmth. However that heat is not necessarily good for your health – in fact, entirely the opposite.

 

The same is true for light. A lot of light is essential for tasks that require visual acuity. If you are crafting in wood, making a model, writing, cleaning, shaving, etc., then you will need good light. However, watching TV needs hardly any light at all. Likewise many simple tasks such as getting dressed, making a coffee, having a chat, etc., require very little light. The problem (again) is that we are used to so much cheap light, freely available at the flick of a switch we become to expect it as a right and a literal source of our industrial “enlightenment”. We refer to the “dark ages” as if it was a time of ignorance and disease (which it was). In our new reality these concepts will be reversed. Bright lights will be seen as evidence of our ignorance and lack of civilised values. Low light and darkness will become viewed as evidence of our intelligence and wisdom. Imagine the future office where the lights ONLY come on when there is actually someone in the room, or where low light levels are chosen voluntarily by staff in areas where their tasks to not require some much light, i.e., VDU users.

 

However, our eyes can cope with far less. Many in military forces will be used to the idea of working in low light conditions in order to enhance their ‘night vision’. The security forces that surround VIP’s are often seen wearing sunglasses so as to preserve their visual abilities in low light conditions. Our problem is that we just THINK we need more light than we do.

 

That is not to say we need be stupid. Walking up and down the stairs probably should not be attempted in complete darkness! However, try and think about how Eskimos cope. Have you ever noticed how HOT your house seems when you have been outside in the ‘cold’. It is all a case of perceptions. There was a case of the ‘wolf boy’ a young feral child who was found running wild in India. He was bought back to England where he refused to wear clothes. When it snowed he happily ran around outside in temperatures that we would never let our children out in. For him it was normal and he suffered no ill health. He didn’t believe it was cold and he kept his energy levels up through exercise. That was all he needed. We feel the need for warmth because of our sedentary existence.

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View Article  Own a Chelsea Tractor?

Death to the 4x4. Many in non-industrialised nations who are fortunate to be reading this web site (welcome) would be confused about western concepts of transport. Particularly our obsession for travelling around in transport that is completely inappropriate. In parts of the world with unpaved roads the way that produce gets to market or the Doctor comes to your village is in a toughened all terrain four-wheel-drive vehicle. There it is often a matter of survival.

 

Mainly in the north, in prosperous industrialised nations we think such vehicles are necessary for taking the kids to school or going shopping in. In America, every week, one beloved son or daughter is run over by their loving parents in their own driveways by an SUV. They consume more space, fuel and natural resources in their construction than small cars. They provide their drivers with a false sense of security although they are more dangerous to other road users, pedestrians and even the SUV drivers themselves. Sure, you may survive the crash, but no one else will. Unlike ‘normal cars’ the SUV driver is far more likely to roll over. In the cold war of cars the SUV is winning. It is evidence only of our ignorance, selfishness and stupidity. All the time the emissions from these vehicles are slowly strangling the third world countries where the use of such vehicles are REALLY necessary. Could you live with yourself?

 

The problem with all personal motor vehicle transport is that in any growing prosperous economy the growing affluence leads to more and more cars. So the roads are full to saturation. Literally our demand for cars grows to meet the capacity for road traffic. Likewise, our need for cars grows to meet the supply of space. Hence we fill our cars with junk. Because we can, not because we need it.

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View Article  Cap and Trade - Contract & Converge

Once you have accepted that your rights cannot be at the expense of another man’s right then it is time to talk about Cap and Trade. His extends the principle. Once you accept that everyone should have equal opportunity then you can expect to ration these opportunities and privileges equally amongst the global population. Once divided equally somebody who uses less of their allocation can sell their share to someone who is using more. It means that rich Northern people have to buy their allocation from a poor Southerner. This gives Carbon a price and reallocates funds to those who desperately need them the most. Hence the wealth of the North will come from its ingenuity and efficiency not from how much of another man’s air we can steal. We can have his air, but it not longer free. Suddenly our lifestyle has a cost. Carbon has a cost. We have internalised that cost.

 

Once you have put a price and quota on our Carbon Emissions and Fossil Fuel Consumption then we have a simple market mechanism to allow the peoples of the planet to contract and converge. He “convergence” means that we will cap how much the rich can buy form the poor slowly over time so that the poor can assert their rights to a larger share as the rich give up their disproportionate share of global resources. The “contraction” is an overall reduction in Carbon Quota for ALL people allowing the average to come down.

 

Why does “Contract and Converge” have such incredible credence when it sounds so much like some kind of crazy neo-communism? Well, firstly it does not assume that all men are equal when it comes to wealth. It is not a great leveller in any respect other than for what it matters – Carbon. There can still be disparity between rich and poor and there is no centralised planning or state apparatus. It is just a market with a basic form of rationing. That may be an anathema to some but the reason this approach is important is because it is the only one EVERYONE can agree to. It is equitable. No one wins or looses as such. Everyone gets the same. If you want more than your share, you have to buy it. You just can’t assume you can have it. It has a price. Simple but brilliant.

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View Article  Anti-Progress?

The accusation levelled at many ‘enviromentlists’ is that they hate humanity, hug trees and are against any form of human progress or economic activity. An easy accusation with an element of truth. Sure there are some extreme elements that probably believe so. However, until relatively recently most Humans would happily tolerate the loss of a quarter of all species on Earth because it didn’t effect them. However, what is happening now is that our actions do effect us. All of us. There will be no place to hide. You will only need to look out of the window at the sky or look at the price of petrol in your tank to realise what is happening. Progress brought us thus far. The genie is out of the bottle and Pandora’s Box is open.

 

Defending against the ‘anti-progress’ argument is futile. Much like being accused of being ‘anti-American’ it is simply a platitude used by people who have already made their minds up. The discussion needs to move on. Move away from labels and accusation and on to acceptance of the damage and what we are going to do about it. This is about action not words. Our second approach is to redefine ‘progress’ and to challenge the accusers’ understanding of what 'progress' represents.

 

Our 'progress' has been defined as ‘taxation without representation’. We have progress today so we can have decline in the future. That decline will effect our children and their children. If we are really unlucky then there will be no more children beyond that. Our children may starve so we can eat. Our children may know poverty so that we can be rich. We tax our children to pay for our party. And the party is over. Who needs a party when it makes you unhappy?

 

Progress has made you warm and put food on your plate but are you happy? All evidence suggests not. Research shows that beyond our basic needs for warmth, security, air to breath, food then our ability to be happy depends upon concepts of love, freedom and security. However, our progress has eroded freedom and security. Our need for progress in purely financial terms has lead to military action in oil producing countries to ‘secure’ our supplies of their natural resources. However, this undermines our security as those wars have come home. They cannot be held at arms length. If we kill another man his brother will come here to kill you. That is only a law of nature. The right of self defence is universal.

 

As our wars come home to haunt us our Governments react by cutting back on our freedoms. There is more. Our consumer society engineers artificial ‘wants’ for things we don’t need. So we work harder and harder for the money to buy these things. Our work undermines our families and relationships. Our communities and neighbourhoods are eroded as we turn away from collective values and uphold only personal rights. Our crimes rates explode, our youth disenfranchised, no one turns out to vote. We just don’t care anymore about anyone other than ourselves. In the end this doesn’t make us happy as the cost to our common values I so great it outweighs the benefits to our personal freedoms. What is the point of owning a nice car if someone will just scratch it? What is the point of owning a nice car if the generations yet unborn will have to suffer for it?

 

Man is not a machine to make money.

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View Article  What on Earth is “Peak Oil”?

If you know anything about the Post-Carbon Living and the Transition Movement you will know it has something to do with something called “Peak Oil”. Wow - immediate turn off. Doze…. It’s probably a bit dull because no one knows what that is! Some think it may even be the name of an oil company. So let’s clear up the mystery.

 

The “peak” bit refers to the highest point of Oil (and Gas) production. Ever since the first modern oil well was drilled (1859) the production rate has increased. That is incredible to believe. Every year we wanted more, and, magically, there was more. Always MORE. Never less. That is 150 years straight. We have never had to do without oil. Generations were born, grew old and died in this oil age. This age of petroleum man. When ‘peak oil’ arrives this stops. 150 years of history comes to an end. For 150 years oil has been cheap. The price may have risen historically but it has been relatively cheap in comparison to water or coffee.

 

We bundle oil & gas together as we they are both found in the same place. Both are uniquely energy dense so are highly valued for transport. Have you ever tried to fly a plane on coal? Both are also very valuable as the basic ‘stuff’ we use to make everything from fertiliser to CD’s. However, oil and gas are finite. You only get a certain amount. It doesn’t matter how clever you are or how profitable it is – once it runs out there is no more. Since we use the energy from oil to extract oil then once it takes more energy to suck it out, than you can yield from the oil, then you are wasting your time. You stop extraction – even if most of the oil is left in the ground.

 

How do we know it will happen? That is really easy to explain. Production always lags behind discovery by about 40 years. This has been true for every oil well on the planet and it was true in the USA. It is quite predictable. You first find the oil then you start pumping and drilling more wells. After forty years the pressure drops and you start having to pump harder and harder. Then you start shutting down oil wells. Production ALWAYS declines. Across the entire planet the peak in oil discovery was around 1970. Just count forward 40 years and you get….. 2010. The amount of oil we discover dropped below the amount we burn in 1980. We have lived off past discoveries for 30 years and time is running out.

 

So the “peak” is not the end of oil. It represent the end of relatively CHEAP oil. Oil will never really run out. It will just become so expensive than none of us will be able to afford it. Production will decline at between 2% and 7% every year forever. Price will rise likewise.

 

For most of us this is so incomprehensible that we simply ignore the fact. In fact, we’ll probably keep ignoring it even after it happens. We’ll blame speculators. We’ll blame Government taxation. We’ll blame foreigners. We’ll blame terrorists. We’ll blame wars. We’ll blame anything. We are so keen to ignore the obvious that during the last oil price shock I saw an E:Mail circulated by someone who suggested we boycott the Oil Companies themselves in an effort to get them to lower the price. As if!

 

How soon? Most conventional sources of oil peaked around 2008. The Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas reckons around 2010. The International Energy Agency based in Paris officially states 2013 for an ‘energy crunch’. They reckon we might be able to push this out to 2020 if we invest a lot more in the oil industry. The longest date officially-sanctioned outside of OPEC is 2037 from the U.S. Geological Survey (although this is not believed to be credible). Whatever the date one thing is sure. Oil and Gas production will decline within most of our lifetimes’.

 

What will it mean? Oil Companies will try even harder to find more oil & gas. There will be a big push on advanced technology to extract the last drops. So we will see slowly rising oil prices for many years. However, there will be a point where the price will just sky-rocket under present growth demand. Developing nations like India and China want their slice of the pie and they will command enormous buying power as they are awash with the currency of oil - petrodollars. We’ll simply get priced out of the market. So we’ll turn to coal as a last resort. However, if we use coal at the rate we use oil it could be gone in less than fifty years.

 

Then there are biofuels. If we stopped eating and turned every last crop into biofuel you would still only power a small percentage of the cars currently on the road. Even the best biotechnology making oil from bacteria and sewerage is never going to satisfy our bottomless lust for oil. It won’t really help. Mineral oil & gas are an incredible one time gift from nature that can be turned into everything from plastics to medecines. So what do we do with it? We burn it. It has been available in utterly overwhelming quantities that we use it for everything – so much so that we became addicted to its abundance. Nothing will ever replace it in the volumes we have used it. The entire food & energy sectors (and specifically transport) are about to change.

 

What’s the impact on us? Well the price will rise hence so will fuel poverty. We often think of a lack of oil as being a problem when filling up our cars. In fact your car will be the least of your problems. Think about how you ...   more »

View Article  Who’s in Transition?

“Transition” is the decarbonisation and relocalisation of the community necessary to rebuild resilience. Resilience that will be needed as a result of fossil fuel depletion and the actions we take to combat the threat of climate change. This time around we’ll look at who is in Transition and ‘transition’. We can differentiate between those members of the formal “Transition Town” team, and those members of the local community who are doing ‘transition activity’ but are unconnected with the Transition Movement. It is ‘transition’ with a big “T” and a small “t”.

 

For example. Whilst driving down the road the other day I noticed a house being insulated with external cladding. This was quite interesting because, unlike cavity wall insulation, the external insulation is complicated, expensive and highly time-consuming to fit. Hence it is rare and I had never witnesed it actually being done. You need scaffolding up. The you need to move your guttering and all external wall fixtures like lights and the alarm box. To get it done you must either be really bored or really desperate for a warm house. Of course if you don’t have cavity walls this may be your only option – next to internal cladding that makes your rooms smaller! Clearly the great transition will see a lot more of this kind of insulation going up on older houses… But this anecdote proves that there are people willing to do this today. However, not a single member of the local Transition Town group knows who this pioneering home-owner is.

 

It is clear that there is a quiet revolution underway in the town. A tidal wave of change is happening. We just don’t talk about it. All the individuals involved don’t even think they are part of a revolution.

 

I had always assumed that people who were putting up solar panels would also sign up for their newsletter or join their Google Group – just to get on board and chat. Where is the thriving renewable energy club in the town? We do appear to have a large disconnect between what people do and what they are interested in. It seems as if some people are in transition blissfully unaware of what they are doing or somehow unwilling to share this with like-minded people. There are literally hundreds of people in this town with allotments or growing vegetables in their gardens. Yet barely a handful register their interest in a Local Food Group organised by TT members. Strange.

 

Clearly something is amiss here. People just seem to see no connection between the physical manifestation of their hobbies and what Transition Towns are all about. As I have often bored you with before – many people dismiss us as an environmental group so, as THEY are not environmentalists, then they have nothing to do with US. Well, god bless them – keep up the good work! But please, don’t be a stranger. Look beyond the stereotype. I guess these folks will eat their home grown carrots regardless of climate change of fossil-fuel depletion. Nothing wrong with that I suppose. But the problem is that people may just think that the transition to a fossil fuel free world will just happen by itself. The Stern Report actual states the Climate Change is a failure of the Market. The Hirsch Risk Management Report, for the US Dept of Energy, stated that the free market is unlikely to react quickly enough to alleviate the sudden oil shortages predicted. Transtion will NOT quite happen all by itself. The experts agree.

 

The missing dimension is COMMUNITY. If only a few of us have home-grown food in times of desperate need then we will have no mechansim for sharing. Without sharing we will resort to stealing and fighting. That has no future. You can’t run and hide. We will have to deal with our neighbours one day. We are stronger together. So many people are in transition because they see something in it for THEM and THEM alone. But what about everyone? Is this kind of social movement so out of keeping with modern culture that nobody can see what a valuable contribution they are making to building tomorrow’s world?

 

I guess it is a hangover from a Thatcherite/Blairite era were self-interest governed the economic interests of a nation. Greed was good. But greed only works well in times of prosperity and growth. In times of hardship it all falls apart and all you are left with is, well, greed. Don’t get me wrong – I am a big fan of the free-market, if you want a loaf of bread… But as you enjoy your cocktails on the Titanic spare a thought for the life-boat drill. We take it for granted that we work together for the common good – just occasionally.

 

There will be a day where our globalised world will shrink. Far less foreign travel than now. Our horizons will shrink down to a neighbourhood level. We will need to re-plug into our home locations. You won’t be able to rely upon that rice shipment, you’ll need potatoes. The lights won’t stay on because of the coal power station on the coast. They will stay on because of your photovoltaics, your neighbour’s combined heat-power system or the town’s wind farm. The energy internet is here.

 

Within twenty years as much as 40% of us may derive some home heat from wood fuel. It will no longer be seen as a cosy lifestyle option – more a way of keeping warm. So hands up who is using a wood stove today? OK – how many? Yup. And how many of you are doing it because you like the idea of the fuel coming from a local wood or because it is nearly carbon neutral? OK how many? Is this vision or just lifestyle? Self interest or leadership? Just doing “our bit to save the environment” or being a bit ‘green’? Doing the right thing ...   more »

View Article  Tractors & our connections

Christmas shopping saw me in John Lewis last week. I was after a toy tractor for my little Milla (now 2 years and 5 months old).  I was disappointed not to find a wooden one so I got the plastic one probably made in China. However, it was not so much this minor ethical dilemma that got me thinking. On the journey home I pondered why tractors seem so benign? I wouldn’t dream of buying her anything as vulgar as monster truck or toy gun. Why are tractors deemed so harmless? They are machines that consume diesel. On the face of it they are no more sustainable than the motorcar. However, unlike personal transport the tractor is a beast of burden like the ambulance and bus. No one gets in one for fun. This is work. The work of feeding people. Even organic farms use tractors. Cuba uses tractors. A tractor won’t harm you but it could feed you. However there is more to it than this.

 

Nobody gets angry at tractors. Unlike Nuclear Power Stations or Televisions. However these are all inanimate objects. Why do we pick and choose? Why do we so disassociate ourselves from our own folly? Parents blame Television for their children’s behaviour – but not themselves. We blame radioactivity for illness but never Nuclear Scientists. You could argue that a tractor is a horrible invention of the so called “green revolution” no more benign than agrochemicals or Monsanto. They tear up the land doing the job that unemployed people and chickens can do better.

 

Yet still I am happy with my tractor. Of all the things in Milla’s toy box it is the one thing, next to the toy horseys, that most connect us with farming, agriculture and the land. That seems very important for our children. They (and we) remain so disconnected from that which feeds us. This is a problem. When Milla grows up it may be that the only transport she has is a horse or a bicycle. The only internal combustion engine she will ever hear maybe the put-put of a little tractor powered by biodiesel. One just like her grandfather used to drive. Maybe, if she is really lucky she will hop on her grandfather’s knee as her drives her around on a little tractor. I would be so proud.

 

So I decided to take the side of the tractor in this propaganda war. Why not a Coal Fuelled Power Station? Simply because of size. The electronic box of tricks called a television is harmless. It can bring the wonders of this world to my daughter’s eyes without her needing to travel. The problems start with what gets shown between these programs. Advertising by large toy corporations, shown on channels by large media corporations, driving demand for stuff she will never need. (Since she never sees adverts for children’s toys we have no tantrums when we take her around a toy store. She picks up toys, looks at them and puts them down. No problems. Try it!)

 

So size matters. One man on a tractor can do very little damage and can demonstrate ‘good’ very clearly. Billions of dollars of undemocratic, faceless, economic machinery removes us from the harm of our own stupidity.

 

Hence small community wind turbines are good. The community is involved in its selection and erection. They are engaged. A large offshore wind farm MIGHT be good but the jury should remain out until we demonstrate that we haven’t just passed our problems on to marine ecology. Hence we have to care. Clearly large fossil fuel power stations are bad. The very reason we make them so big, so far away and so inefficient is so that we don’t have to care. No one wants their nose rubbing in it. One car is a museum piece or a test-bed. A billion cars is a crime. This is why small, slow and local is good. It is the replacement paradigm. Anything ‘large’ has its sell by date now. It may seem like turning the clock back but this is the future. At the small scale I can reconnect my children with the soil. It matters not whether technology is involved or not. It is our connection to the source that is important. Big scale means separation. It is not the technology of the internet or mobile phone that is “good” or “bad” – it is the connections we make that dictate ethics. It is US and what we do. We can use the technology as a barrier between us and the real world. Or we can choose to use it to connect with nature. We choose unwisely. This is not the fault of technology.

 

So, let’s hear it for the tractor. Get yer boots dirty.

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View Article  Con or Consensus (II)

In the first “Con or Consensus” blog I mused over the role of ‘science’ and ‘theory’ in the climate change debate. I concluded that the changes required to deal with climate change are inevitable and desirable. Although we should support healthy informed debate we probably should not get too hopeful of it leading to any radical new conclusions - even if we have much left to learn.

 

That still leaves a question. Why is the issue so polarised? I can see why the true-believers (in man-made climate change) fight so hard. They see the threat as very real, very dangerous and impacting them personally (and their children). It is a matter of life and death. So to deny it is like a dagger to their hearts. A very direct insult.

 

But why do some fight the denial corner equally as vigorously? Last time, we studied the argument of some who say that to do anything about climate change would be counter-productive, ie, it would lead to poverty. Some cling to this belief… But there are many more with their own axes to grind…. Many a lay-man will read a newspaper article and conclude their world-view from that. (There are a thousand armchair pundits who always know better how to manage the local football club. But they are not managing the football club. Guess why.)

 

Opinions remain everyone’s right and arise through a rich texture of life’s experiences. People interpret what they are told in different ways. Some see only evidence of conspiracy that will rob them personally of their hard-won lifestyle. Others simply refuse to believe anything they are told because they see themselves as rugged individuals and the rest of us as sheep. All fascinating but hardly an objective review of the facts.

 

Then there are those we aspire to – people in the media. People who contribute to our life-view. The rich and powerful – many of whom have come from a cultural background that has always enjoyed a certain amount of privilege. Others are respectable pillars of society - opinion-leaders who are intelligent and often authoritative. They often display strong conservativism. They start with the assumption that the “environmentalists are the enemy”. Does anyone recall the rich heiress who was found to have paid less tax than her maid? When challenged she simply replied that tax was paid by “the little people”. The people who matter (ie, those who run things) do not have to pay tax. Nor do they have to believe in tripe like climate change (just ask the head of Ryan Air). They know better. Afterall they are the masters of the universe. They don’t care for any actual evidence because they know they are right. That is all that matters. This is disconcerting. I was personally unsettled, a few months back, when a colleague assured me that Jeremy Clarkson should be Prime Minister.

 

Sometimes I do understand this world-view. It is born of a well-known stereotype: the great unwashed. Go on a Climate Change march and look around you: amongst the families, grannies and small children there also the Socialist Workers, Marxists, Class War, Anarchists, Communists, the Workers Party, the Trade Unionists, the Judean People’s Front and the People’s Front of Judea. All of them committed to the belief that’ the proletariat are in a struggle against an oppressive system run by capitalists.

 

Scary! No wonder the conservatives think THESE sort of people are “environmentalists”, ie, hippies and pinko-commie-subversives. Not to be trusted! I would be scared of these stereotypes too. The problem is that these people actually are a tiny (but noisy) minority – most of whom are probably a joy to know and perfectly nice people to boot….. But the real environmentalists these days are men in suits (the Porritts & Leggetts) who look more Tory than Tory. Many might not even class themselves as environmentalists, ecologists, eco-that or green-this. The Transition Town movement in High Wycombe has a former local politician, a company director, a nurse, a doctor, an IT Specialist, a grandmother and an engineer or two. No one is sitting cross-legged in the moonlight, wearing beads in their hair, and humming to themselves. There is no preaching of brotherly love or the wearing of flower garlands. The average meeting is pretty indistinguishable from a get together of a parish council! So the stereotypes are inaccurate – but they remain. So much so that “they” want nothing to do with “us”. We are the woolly-headed liberals. Why listen to us? But it won’t get us anywhere.

 

So let’s assume that the views of the masters of the universe, the class warriors, the armchair pundits, newspaper letter writers and internet bloggers are probably NOT a good starting point if you want to know what is going on. (Logoff immediately!)

 

This leaves is with some scientists. Some may jump to a conclusion that if these folk are not “with us” then they must be “against us” hence are obviously in the pay of the fossil fuel industry. Al Gore concluded they were all nutcases. Well some may be. But some are not. We cannot just conclude that the Oil industry gets scientists to lie. It’s more complicated. Many critics are retired nuclear physicists with little to gain financially. More is going on here.

 

Researchers at the University of Colorado conducted an anthropological study on three scientists associated with the George C. Marshall Institute (which promotes unregulated free-market forces, military defence technology & nuclear power whilst opposing environmental regulation). The top levels of the US government had used the Marshall Institute’s (non-peer-reviewed) climate change report in preference to that of the IPCC’s.

 

The study exposed an “environmental backlash” amongst an elite of elderly nuclear physicists who cut their teeth on the Nuclear Bomb and Power Projects of the 1940’s & 50’s when Nuclear was very much in vogue. They were used to the prestige and political influence of those early ...   more »

View Article  Con or Consensus? (I)

A few weeks back there was a Climate Change debate where matter was quite fiercely discussed with different parties taking positions behind battlements built of science. Such passion made me wonder. Science cannot prove two sides of an argument to be correct at the same time. Does there have to be winners and losers?

 

In search of answers I tried to recall what I learnt in school: I think “Science” is a process by which evidence is produced by experiment – experiments that can be reproduced with the same result. “Theories” suggest explanations for that evidence.

 

QED: I drop an apple out of a tree and it hits the ground. It ALWAYS hits the ground. It does not fly up into the sky. That is the scientific method. It is about WHAT happens. However the 'Theory of Gravity' suggests WHY the apple hits the ground. Why this happens can be explained in different ways, over time, as our understanding evolves. The result of the experiment is fixed but our explanation of it may not be. If most people accept a certain theory for long enough then it becomes a perceived truth until some better evidence/explanation comes along.

 

Therefore a consensus is important for theories. And theories follow the evidence. A theory can be extrapolated into a model that can be used to forecast the future, ie, the earth revolves in the same way all the time hence the sun will rise in the east every morning. You are in trouble if you come up with a theory and select only the evidence that proves it whilst ignoring that which does not, ie, my Uncle smoked his entire life yet died at age 102 - hence smoking is harmless. Theories can be tested against all the evidence – if practical – but a theory can never be an absolute truth. Only experimental result can be truly 'true'.

 

Thus theories get hotly contested. Just look at the theory of Evolution. Fossil records and the observation of species (in their environmental niches) is the evidence for it. But you cannot sit and watch evolution happen. You don’t have a time machine for this purpose. Most of us take it for granted that we evolved from apes but when Charles Darwin first suggested the idea people could not imagine anything so outrageous. The scientific consensus, however, lined up behind Darwin because his theory fitted the evidence. It all seemed very reasonable so we got used to the idea – even if some of the implications and details are still debated up until today.

 

We should not confuse the WHY with the WHAT; WHAT we see is a diverse fossil record, WHY we see that is the explained by theory of evolution. The fossils remain even if the theory changes. Even if you are a creationist the fossils don’t go away – you just have a different explanation.

 

Anyway...... Back to the matter at hand: We can demonstrate the greenhouse effect in, well, a greenhouse. We can demonstrate the Carbon Dioxide is always a greenhouse gas. It can be replicated with experiments. Likewise we can track the concentration of CO2 in our atmosphere and we can show it increasing year by year. No one can show it going down anywhere in the world – it is a reproducible observation. Likewise we can prove that the extra CO2 is caused by us.

 

At this point many devotees to man-made climate change theory see this as all the evidence they need hence they have ‘scientific proof’. However, as I found out, there is a long journey between this evidence and ‘proof’ of the theory that man-made climate change will lead to mass extinction. We can demonstrate that man CAN change the climate. But the climate is a very complicated thing. We understand almost anything better! The fact that we CAN heat the climate is enough for us to proceed with caution and avoid doing anything that might lead to this result. This is the precautionary principle… But we should not just cherry-pick the data that proves man-made climate change is happening (or not happening) just to suit our view of reality. This leads to debate.

 

Hence we appoint bodies like the IPCC (Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change) to wade through all the evidence and all the complexity, from all angles, to give us a range of probably outcomes. They say that we probably are warming the planet. This is enough say-so for most of us. But it isn’t evidence in itself. It is consensus on a theory based upon evidence. No one says the IPCC or the scientific establishment are perfect. They are human, they are flawed and they have made mistakes. We all do. Likewise Governments can take the cautionary word of scientists and twist it to whatever political objective takes their fancy. Few will benefit politically from climate change hence political progress has been agonising slow. Even when we do make progress it tends to be towards a quick fix that benefits an already established power – such as the Nuclear Industry.

 

Despite recent (ie, 30 years) temperature rises there is not a long enough temperature history for us to be 100% sure if this not a passing phase. A non-CO2 factor could swing into dominance and confound our expectations – a nice thought but don’t hold your breath.... But the point is that we simply do not have a laboratory big enough to squeeze our climate into. We have no spare planets to experiment on. We can’t fast forward through time to give us a 100,000 years worth of history so we can say what WILL happen. So we have to assume the worst.

 

Most scientists are very conservative and state what only can be proven. Otherwise they deal with probabilities of what might be. Therefore it is remarkable that most scientists join the consensus on climate change, ie, it is happening and it is our fault. The flip-side is that there are also good scientists who (in their own fields) cannot see much evidence ...   more »

View Article  Business Passenger

In a recent debate upon the rights and wrongs of flying one learned gentleman raised the point that people don’t act on Climate Change (by restricting their flying) because they believe they are “good people” therefore they don’t deserve to be punished because it isn’t their fault.

 

I recalled this discussion a full week later when reading John Pilger’s novel “The New Rulers of the World”. On the pages concerning the colonial abuse suffered by Australian’s Aboriginal peoples there was an anecdote about the reporting of uncomfortable facts. In 1988 an Australian Anthropologist announced new figures suggested that the numbers of Aboriginals who died as a direct result of white settlers was higher than first thought – in the order of 600,000 people. However the story was buried on page sixteen of the Sydney Morning Herald “under the byline of the paper’s ‘Environment Writer’” (People who know me will understand when I chuckled at that point. We write-off all inconvenient facts as “environmental matters”. It is the equivalent of dusting it under the carpet. But I digress…..) Pilger went on to add that one columnist “made the astonishing claim that frontier killings could not possibly have taken place ‘because the colonists were Christian to whom such actions were abhorrent’”.

 

So there you have it. Despite the evidence to suggest the unnatural death of over half a million people this couldn’t possibly be true because (let me translate) the settlers were ‘nice people’ who wouldn’t do such terrible things. Therefore it didn’t happen. It seems that there is a long, long history of denial in all its forms in so many aspects of human life. If we are unable to even comprehend the nature of our own crimes, going back hundreds of years, then what chance do we have of ever recognising the responsibilities we face today?

 

I don’t cause climate change because I am a good person.

 

Of course the ultimate irony for me was that I read this book sitting at an Airport. Horror of horrors it was even a domestic flight. Hypocrite you cry! A full one-third of all passengers flying through our airports are travelling on Business. That included me. Since I was destined to be in Glasgow for a full 2 hours to perform a software demonstration then I was destined to go by air. The journey by train would have taken much longer. Now I don’t like sitting at airports. I don’t like flying. I hate flying. There was no pleasure in it – no ‘love miles’. No holiday at the end of the journey. Just work. I was being paid to be there. No excuses. That was it. I wasn’t denying anything. I knew exactly what I was doing. I would rather spend time with my wife and daughter than on a train. Less time spent travelling is more family time.

 

So it did hit me that denial is only part of the problem. Business Passengers take planes because they can. Because they are expected to. Because the economy needs them to. If they were not paid to do it they wouldn’t do it. As Business is geared up around flying then it is our way of business that must change. Software demonstrations are difficult to muster over the phone but it is not technically impossible to have done it this way. But the client didn’t have the facilities to do this. Likewise they could have got a Consultant from the Glasgow area to go and do it. But no one was available.

 

Hence for that third of the Airline Passengers there are only two solutions: technology and relocalisation. But no one is thinking about that yet. And no one individual can change this. Something external has to happen. Until then we are like Charlie Chaplin trapped in the giant cogs of industry. However, you are left wondering what the other two-thirds of the passengers’ excuse is….

 

I like to think I am a good person. I know I cause climate change. I know exactly what I am doing.

 

I am writing this.

 

And you are reading it.

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View Article  Our Independence Day

In Roland Emmerich’s 1996 blockbuster “Independence Day” (Centropolis Entertainment/20th Century Fox) we are painted the apocalyptic vision of an alien horde in ‘locust’ mode. They move from planet to planet consuming every natural resource before moving on to the next victim. Now, you can see where this is going. In my previous posting to this blog I mused about where human sustainability could end up, ie, could we build a city planet completely ‘free’ of nature’s support systems? Could out technology evolve to allow us to sustain existence without nature?

 

However, when I wrote those words I start to think about this other sci fi movie. It occurred to me that if humans became that advanced would one planet be enough? Would we end up having to expand into the universe to look for the resources we have so depleted at home? Would our city planet only sustain because we move the problem elsewhere? Well, that wasn’t the point of my thinking. I was assuming that it was sustainable. But what if it were not? What if we keep doing what we always keep doing? That is, pushing the problem out-of-sight & out-of-mind?

 

It requires the insight if a third sci fi classic – The Matrix – to give us a clue. For we are indeed a virus. We can live happily on one host for a very long time. But that is symbiosis however parasitical it may be. Are we a symbiont? Or a virus? Viruses destroy their hosts. Mistletoe can kill the tree it grows on eventually. So I guess the topic of this blog post is one of balance. How do we maintain a balance between true sustainability and simply dusting the problem under the carpet? Surely it must be so easy to slip from one form of existence to the other? We have no sensible concept of limits. If our city planet was sustainable would we not just want to export this success elsewhere? Well, yes, but that is not the locust/virus analogy. To be a locust you must consume more than is available. In the very long run.

 

The aliens in Independence Day were trapped into an unsustainable lifecycle. It was them or us. So, in this piece of sci fi we won the day. However we are trapped in our own unsustainable existence. The resources, we strip, are eventually going to figure out what our weakness is and exploit it to destroy us. Maybe that is what peak oil and climate change is? So what we need is our own independence. We must close this virtuous circle of sustainability.

 

There is a hypothesis that points out that the reason we have no contact with aliens is simply because no civilisation can ever reach the point of creating interstellar travel. Any advanced race that clever HAS to have exhausted all of its natural resources and collapsed a long time before they could build the first spacecraft. Is this a firm mathematical law that we can demonstrate? It is a theory. An interesting one. Is it a question of size? I assume size is only important in relation to your command of energy resources. With sufficient energy you can command matter itself. Is it a question of clever? Surely not. So how do we reach this limit? Is it really inevitable? How can we beat it? Can we outsmart it?

 

Let’s paint a picture. Imagine if we make fusion energy work for us tomorrow. This gives us clean energy forever. With this we could steer around peak oil and climate change. As long as population follows the expected peak and declines then we may see our way through to 2100 passing into a sustainable existence. With the pressure off our energy resources we could start to return parts of the planet to nature. Problems of food and water are essentially population ones. With endless energy you can of course deplete resources more quickly. But to what purpose? To drive up the standard of living of the remaining people? So here we can demonstrate a limit. How do we limit our own standard of living? If everyone was to sustainably have the standard of living of a European then there would have to be drastic cut in population. It would go on and on until, finally, there was just one human being left with all the wealth of the planet.

 

So they key really is human aspiration not technology. We will eventually outstrip our supplies if our ambitions outstrip what is available. If we lick the energy gap, peak water, climate change, food production and population then we will still keep demanding more and more. Maybe, then, humans must have some kind of limit simply because, no matter how clever we are, we are essentially stupid? Until we can conquer our own desires there will be no sustainability for us. And if we did that, would we still be human?

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