Robert L. Hirsch "The Impending World Energy Mess"
by
Post Carbon Man
on Wed 12 Oct 2011 09:03 BST
ISBN 978-1926837-11-6. "The Impending World Energy Mess - what
it is and what it means to YOU!" written by Robert L Hirsch, Roger H Bezdek and
Robert M Wendling and published by Apogee Prime in 2010. The review copy is a
first edition but is a paperback with dustcover (unusual!). For your money you
get 251 pages boasting Preface, Foreword by James Schlesinger, Introduction,
eighteen chapters, Postscript, References and Index. Those of us who have been
following the peak oil story for a few years (about seven years in the
reviewer's case) will be familiar with the work of this writing team. They were
responsible for a 2005 report for the US Department of Energy called "Peaking of
World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation & Risk Management". In it the team
developed scenarios for crash programs to mitigate the risks arising from peak
oil. They famously concluded that it would take around 20 years to adjust to
peak oil hence we had better start earlier rather than later. Of course nothing
happened. The report was of little interest to the US DOE. They buried it and it
took a subsequent Freedom on Information request for it to emerge in to the
public domain. The report has become a legend in its own lunchtime - so much so
that it has become one of the corner stones of peakist folklore. Between the
work of Richard Heinberg and Colin Campbell we had all we needed to launch a
million paranoia's. From it the entire Transition movement was born as well as
Post-Carbon Living.
However, one has to wonder: just how many of us ever read this
report or know much about these authors? Well, you can read the 2005 report here. As for the authors, they are all highly qualified and
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ISBN 978 1 905570 20
1. "Blackout - Coal, Climate and the Last Energy Crisis" by Richard Heinberg was
published by Clairview Books in 2009. For your money you get 200 page including
Acknowledgements, Introduction, eight chapters, Notes, Bibliography and Index.
What can we say about a book by Richard Heinberg? Next to Colin Campbell he
practically founded and defined the modern concern about Peak Oil and how it
will effect our civilisation. This is his fifth major book on the topic and (at
the time of writing September 2011) he had already published his sixth "The End
of Growth: Adapting to Our New Economic Reality". It seems hard to catch up. So,
after four good books does the quality start to fail him? Well, sadly, yes. This
is not necessarily a bad thing as this is a book he had to write. Whereas he had
written continually about Peak Oil his critics would always level the criticism
along the lines of "well, that's all right because we have 200 years of coal
left". This is his response and it is well researched and workmanlike. However
it is his least entertaining work and you have the feeling that it was a chore
for him. Most of the book reviews numerous reports on the state of global coal
supplies broken down country by country and region by region. His conclusion?
Well, yes there is lots of coal left but the peak is still likely to come far
sooner that the claim of "200 years supply" suggests. We are likely to see the
peak of coal production somewhere between 2025 and 2075. So, by mid-century
(within the lifetime of this reviewer) we will learn if we can expand our
economies any further on the supply of cheap coal.
Putting the peak issue
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